Executive TL;DR:
- The Industrial Revolution may not be a good precedent for today’s growth.
- Explosive growth may be unrealistic due to diminishing returns and environmental concerns.
- Automation and AI may not be the magic solution for a new era of growth.
The Buzz Score
The Internet’s Verdict: 60% Skeptical, 40% Hyped
Forum Voices
Experts are divided on whether the Industrial Revolution is a good model for today’s growth.
No – the growth today is capital expenditures, not productivity. To be fair, the industrial revolution was a 100 year period or so, computers, web, cloud, mobile and AI will likely be perceived in the same historical framework.
The growth will be in stocks and capital gains, in the consolidation of wealth by a few individuals.
Growth is unrealistic. During the industrial revolution, people were still exploring the world and expanding their reach, establishing new colonies for raw materials.
Conclusion
As one expert notes,
Will we see any growth acceleration? The Internet doesn’t seem to have had this effect. AI may turn out to nothing in terms of gdp growth or even be hugely deflationary.
It’s clear that the path to explosive growth is uncertain and may require a new model.
Focus Keyword: Industrial Growth
